The Fate of Humanity and The Prisoner’s Dilemma

Belief is conviction. Fate or destiny is a destination predetermined by a greater force or principle. Willpower is then subordinate to this greater force or principle. I am not entirely convinced it is so clear-cut. When I step back and examine causes and effects, departures and destinations, I am more convinced of probabilities and possibilities. Possibilities determine probabilities, and the actual expression of probabilities determine possibilities. It is like a tree, its roots, trunk, branches, leaves, fruits, and flowers. The DNA of the tree sets the possibilities, and the expressions are probabilities. The willpower is a tangential force, with its own possibilities and probabilities.

Dissimilar to a tree, the human willpower sets possibilities and probabilities to exponential heights. A supercomputer and AI could hardly calculate the fate of humanity.

As of this date, the US and Israel have declared war on Iran and the latter has struck back. The world is embroiled as coalitions and blocs embrace a power play and decide how to respond.

Speaking of “play”, one thinks of games, as in Game Theory. Game Theory is “the study of mathematical models of strategic interactions”. Perhaps the most popular game in Game Theory is the Prisoner’s Dilemma.

Accordingly, if two gang members (if “rational”) cooperate and agree to remain silent, each will get 1 year in prison. If they do not cooperate, i.e., one testifies and the other remains silent, the one that testifies serves no time and the one that remains silent will get 3 years in prison. If both testify, they will both serve 2 years. Which is the best decision?

The key to the Prisoner’s Dilemma is the cooperation of the other and trust. When trust is fragile, one could testify and receive either 0 years or 2 years. If one really trusts, it is a gamble and one would either receive 1 year or 3 years. The former of 0 or 2 years sounds better than 1 or 3 years to me.

If the US/Israel and Iran can trust each other, they can sign a deal or treaty. However, the trust could be misplaced, and grave consequences incurred. Perhaps the best deal is to testify.

Suddenly, the question occurs: Testify to whom?

In the prisoner’s dilemma, they testify to the court of law. However, when the court of law testifies to none, war will ensue.

Is this fate or destiny? It sure seems like it.

The next question follows: how will global powers be kept in check? The people? A benevolent hegemon? Or some hybrid of the two?

This much I believe: the future is far more complex than a closed case.

When all is said and done, it must be said that life is not a mere game. This proverb from Africa I believe more:

“When elephants fight, the grass gets trampled.”